Understanding adaptation in climate impacts analyses

Investigators: Lobell (lead)

One of the most difficult challenges in modeling climate impacts using any methodology is projecting the adaptation of the impacted sectors to changing climate. There is a risk of double counting technological, management, and or institutional changes when examining climate change impact projections, and this risk can only be reduced if one understands at a more detailed level: (i) the drivers of sectoral activity and productivity levels in the IAMs and (ii) the drivers of adaptation benefits in process model studies of climate impacts in those sectors. This task will start by examining this issue using a combination of relevant observational data and the three I-IAV modeling frameworks described in Program Element I of PCHES-ADAPT to try to understand how the drivers of yield trends and adaptation in the agricultural sector. In assessing agricultural impacts as part of an integrated impacts assessment, a key question is how much adaptation can help to reduce impacts.

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