The work of PCHES-ADAPT focuses on two regional case studies – water stress and wildfires in the US West, and water stress and flooding in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest – that will form the basis of three intercomparison exercises. The first is an intercomparison of water stress responses and implications in the West and Great Plains. The second is an intercomparison of flooding responses and implications in the Upper Midwest and East Coast. Lastly, the team will also conduct a method intercomparison of uncertainty characterization and quantification (UC/UQ) techniques to test how generalizable the chosen UC/UQ methodological approach is to alternative modeling frameworks and applications. The case studies and intercomparisons are expected to drive innovations in the application of hazard characterization, machine learning (ML), emulation, risk identification, and end-to-end UC/UQ to coupled multisector, multiscale modeling systems that can be shared with the broader MSD community.
The proposed research design will allow alternative, iterative approaches to these critical analytical challenges to be compared and contrasted within a “test-bed” like environment rather than seeking to identify a single dominant consensus modeling framework. This research strategy should enable the team to achieve its research objectives while also providing large synergistic benefits to other MSD research teams and the broader research community.