PCHES-FRAME Task 3.4
Investigators: Lobell (lead)
One of the most difficult challenges in modeling climate impacts using any methodology is projecting the adaptation of the impacted sectors to evolving weather exremes. There is a risk of double counting technological, management, and or institutional changes when examining weather and climate impact projections, and this risk can only be reduced if one understands at a more detailed level: (i) the drivers of sectoral activity and productivity levels in the intergrated models and (ii) the drivers of adaptation benefits in process model studies of impacts in those sectors. This task will start by examining this issue using a combination of relevant observational data and the three integrated modeling frameworks described in Program Element I of PCHES-ADAPT to try to understand how the drivers of yield trends and adaptation in the agricultural sector. In assessing agricultural impacts as part of an integrated impacts modeling, a key question is how much adaptation can help to reduce impacts.