How does an improved sampling of known uncertainties influence the tails of climate projections on decision-relevant spatial and temporal scales?

Investigators: Keller (co-lead), Sriver (co-lead), Forest, Haran, Nicholas, Reed

One key issue relevant for IAM and IAV analysis is that the frequency, duration, and intensity of climate and weather extremes (such as extreme precipitation events, droughts, heat waves, floods, and severe weather outbreaks) are changing (Walsh, et al., 2014). One key scientific question we will address is what are the driving mechanisms and the projected magnitudes of future changes in extremes. Elucidating this question is crucial to developing sound adaptation and risk management strategies, particularly at local to regional scales.

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