Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology
T. F. Keenan, J. Gray, M. A. Friedl, M. Toomey, G. Bohrer, D. Y. Hollinger, J. William Munger, J. O’Keefe, H. P. Schmid, I. Sue Wing, B. Yang, and A. D. Richardson
Nature Climate Change (1 June 2014)
The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (although the exact sensitivity is disputed) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn and increased vegetation activity. Such greening could be expected to enhance ecosystem carbon uptake, although reports also suggest decreased uptake for boreal forests. Here we assess changes in phenology of temperate forests over the eastern US during the past two decades, and quantify the resulting changes in forest carbon storage. We combine long-term ground observations of phenology, satellite indices, and ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements, along with 18 terrestrial biosphere models. We observe a strong trend of earlier spring and later autumn. In contrast to previous suggestions we show that carbon uptake through photosynthesis increased considerably more than carbon release through respiration for both an earlier spring and later autumn. The terrestrial biosphere models tested misrepresent the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and thus the effect on carbon uptake. Our analysis of the temperature–phenology–carbon coupling suggests a current and possible future enhancement of forest carbon uptake due to changes in phenology. This constitutes a negative feedback to climate change, and is serving to slow the rate of warming.