Project 3.3

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

Investigators: Diffenbaugh (lead), Fisher-Vanden, Hartel, Sue Wing, Weyant

Effective climate risk management requires robust quantification of the probability of different kinds of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and severe storms. Now that observed global warming has been clearly attributed to human activities, there is considerable interest in the extent to which that warming has influenced the occurrence and severity of individual extreme climate events. This work on projecting extreme climate events has two major elements: (1) testing the extent to which global warming that has already occurred has increased the probability of extreme events, and (2) using a multi-level nested climate model projection scheme to project the extent to which future global warming will increase the probability of extreme climate events.

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